Trump said that the downing of a US jet received’t disrupt negotiations with Iran. The marketplace for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% per week in the past.
Trump’s deal with diplomacy over navy motion barely elevated long-term ceasefire odds, however the quick impact was restricted. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, whereas April 30 sits at 18% YES. Probably the most important change was within the Could 31 market, dropping to 36% YES from 46% in 24 hours, indicating merchants are cautious about quick progress.
USDC traded within the ceasefire markets was $431,402 during the last 24 hours, with $12,352 wanted to maneuver the April 7 market value by 5 share factors. This liquidity suggests diversified opinions however stays prone to giant trades. The most important current transfer was a 2-point rise for April 30, probably because of hypothesis that Trump’s assertion would possibly result in renewed talks.
Trump’s strategy suggests a cautious escalation technique, doubtlessly stabilizing longer-term ceasefire odds if diplomacy continues. At 18¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if resolved, providing a 5.5x return. For that to occur, important diplomatic progress is required inside 27 days. Look ahead to efforts by Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, which may shift the chances.
Monitor CENTCOM updates or surprising navy actions. Elevated diplomatic exercise may change market dynamics, particularly if Trump’s administration pronounces new talks or appoints an envoy.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early entry waitlist.
Trump said that the downing of a US jet received’t disrupt negotiations with Iran. The marketplace for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% per week in the past.
Trump’s deal with diplomacy over navy motion barely elevated long-term ceasefire odds, however the quick impact was restricted. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, whereas April 30 sits at 18% YES. Probably the most important change was within the Could 31 market, dropping to 36% YES from 46% in 24 hours, indicating merchants are cautious about quick progress.
USDC traded within the ceasefire markets was $431,402 during the last 24 hours, with $12,352 wanted to maneuver the April 7 market value by 5 share factors. This liquidity suggests diversified opinions however stays prone to giant trades. The most important current transfer was a 2-point rise for April 30, probably because of hypothesis that Trump’s assertion would possibly result in renewed talks.
Trump’s strategy suggests a cautious escalation technique, doubtlessly stabilizing longer-term ceasefire odds if diplomacy continues. At 18¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if resolved, providing a 5.5x return. For that to occur, important diplomatic progress is required inside 27 days. Look ahead to efforts by Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, which may shift the chances.
Monitor CENTCOM updates or surprising navy actions. Elevated diplomatic exercise may change market dynamics, particularly if Trump’s administration pronounces new talks or appoints an envoy.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early entry waitlist.
